I've come to the conclusion that the advancing snow cover really doesn't mean anything by itself. It's only of help IF we get a proper easterly setup - and they're rare as hen's teeth in the period where they matter (roughly mid-December to mid-February).

Still, here's a picture from yesteday of the mountains in Siberia - I annoyed the guy across the aisle from me because I kept the window blind open, but tough, frankly. The view was well woth it!

Great photo!

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Great photo!

Was that Darren’s back garden from 2010?

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Interesting Tweet from Judah Cohen:

I would say that the vortex configuration is suggestive of strong westerlies across Europe and milder weather but we will see.

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) October 27, 2017

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Interesting Tweet from Judah Cohen:

I would say that the vortex configuration is suggestive of strong westerlies across Europe and milder weather but we will see.

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) October 27, 2017

 

Interesting? More depressing...

 

(btw, who is Judah Cohen? )

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Interesting Tweet from Judah Cohen:

I would say that the vortex configuration is suggestive of strong westerlies across Europe and milder weather but we will see.

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) October 27, 2017

Would this be the same Cohen who thrusted the OPI upon us a few winters ago stating upon its conclusions how we were looking at a colder than average winter. 😎

Yes Cohen heavily bought into the OPI theory along with Steve Murr a few winters back .However all things considered right now it would be a brave man to bet against his current analysis.

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However he followed up with this..

The vortex configuration doesn't look stable to me so I would not take it as a sign for the winter.

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) October 27, 2017

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Yes Cohen heavily bought into the OPI theory along with Steve Murr a few winters back .However all things considered right now it would be a brave man to bet against his current analysis.

This analysis? 

“The vortex configuration doesn't look stable to me so I would not take it as a sign for the winter.”

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However he followed up with this..

The vortex configuration doesn't look stable to me so I would not take it as a sign for the winter.

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) October 27, 2017

😂😂😂

 

This analysis? 

“The vortex configuration doesn't look stable to me so I would not take it as a sign for the winter.”

I was meaning the previous quoted tweet - I think we saw a very unusual build up to winter last year however we still failed to see HLB that would impact the UK.

At the moment the overall factors don't look as poor as 2015 but that's not saying much.

 

 

 

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😂😂😂

To clarify for you SC, Ian seems to suggest it is wise not to read much into the current vortex configuration re. the winter outlook. 

For a second I thought he may have been insinuating the signs were there for a mild winter but having read the full Twitter thread I more fully appreciate his urging caution about mild winter predictions.

Edit: When I was writing that, Ian has appeared to clarifying that he only really trusts the experts when they predict mild winters, so we should discount the rest of their analyses. 

 

 

 

 

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Yes Cohen heavily bought into the OPI theory along with Steve Murr a few winters back .However all things considered right now it would be a brave man to bet against his current analysis.

I'm in for a fiver.

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To clarify for you SC, Ian seems to suggest it is wise not to read much into the current vortex configuration re. the winter outlook. 

For a second I thought he may have been insinuating the signs were there for a mild winter but having read the full Twitter thread I more fully appreciate his urging caution about mild winter predictions.

Edit: When I was writing that, Ian has appeared to clarifying that he only really trusts the experts when they predict mild winters, so we should discount the rest of their analyses. 

 

 

 

 

I never do doc. 

The main gripe I have with Cohen is that he comes across as a bit manic, constantly changing his tune along with his mood on what the mid to long term may or may not be, that’s all well and good for rank amateurs like us but for a pro I expect a little more coherence. 🙂

Yes Cohen heavily bought into the OPI theory along with Steve Murr a few winters back .However all things considered right now it would be a brave man to bet against his current analysis.

His intro page says he is still focusing on Siberian snow cover effects on NH winter weather.

If the OPI delivers a few years' results, it might re-emerge. 

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I think that this coming winter is a bit of an enigma even for the experts - yes most of the seasonal models are going for a strongly +NAO setup, but the BCC and ECM models are going for the complete opposite. I think it will not be straightforward.

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Darren going to Siberia is like the mountain going to Mohammed! Only chance for us low level southerners to see the white stuff is to fly north!

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Hello everyone!

I've been pretty uninterested for months now - the summer peetered out early and winter indicators looked uncertain. Now we are getting some meat on the bones as we see the actual snow cover advance take place and the early patterns in the strat establish together with an easterly QBO and weakish Nina. my end October assessment would be that I will be posting more this winter than for quite a few years ............ amplification people - we could end up in very much the wrong place but I think there will be a decent lottery this season.

On an observational note, it seems to me that leaf fall has occurred much later this year than in recent years. Over the last few years I would suggest that the bulk of the leaf fall has been completed by the end of September, yet this year it is still going on (at least in this part of the world!)

Can anyone tell me if this means anything with regard to the forthcoming winter, or is it just a sign of the higher temperatures we have had so far this autumn?

On an observational note, it seems to me that leaf fall has occurred much later this year than in recent years. Over the last few years I would suggest that the bulk of the leaf fall has been completed by the end of September, yet this year it is still going on (at least in this part of the world!)

Can anyone tell me if this means anything with regard to the forthcoming winter, or is it just a sign of the higher temperatures we have had so far this autumn?

I’d be very surprised if much of the leaf fall in your neck of the woods is normally completed by the end of September. 

It certainly isn’t the case up here.

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I’d be very surprised if much of the leaf fall in your neck of the woods is normally completed by the end of September. 

It certainly isn’t the case up here.

It certainly isn't the case down here, either! The back garden still has plenty of leaves on display, as do the trees at work and on the roads around here. And that's entirely normal - it's usually well into November before the majority of trees are bare.

I used to get quite excited at things like large numbers of berries on display, but as wiser people on here suggested it just reflects the summer we've had, rather than the winter we're about to have.

 

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